Risk-Neutral Pricing Formula for Zero-coupon bonds with Default Risk ... 1 Answer Sorted by: 1 A brief educational note and then where you can find the info... As a first step, set the expected payoff equal to 0 where prob_D = probability of default, cur_Px = current price, mat_Px = maturity payment, and R = recovery. Therefore prob_D * (recovery - cur_Px) + (1 - prob_D) * (mat_Px - cur_Px) = 0 results in